Chapter 62: A Daring Gamble

“In terms of transporting grain, Yuan Shao is no fool; naturally, he would not make a grave error. But, Mengde, are you aware that Yuan Shao’s army stores and distributes all their provisions at a central supply depot near the front lines?”

When Xu You finished speaking, everyone—including Cao Cao and Guo Jia—revealed expressions of astonishment. The location of provisions, especially for a large army, is an absolute secret. If Xu You could truly offer this secret as his pledge upon joining Cao Cao, it would indeed be a most precious gift.

“Ziyuan, you mean… you know this in detail?”

“Before coming to Mengde, I spent several days investigating in secret. As of today, I have uncovered the truth.”

Gulp.

Behind Cao Cao, someone audibly swallowed at Xu You’s words. The phrase "uncovered the truth" was of utmost importance to Cao Cao’s forces, who urgently needed a decisive victory.

“Where is it? What are the troop numbers?”

Now, Cao Cao wasted no words, his expression stern as he asked.

Xu You did not hesitate. He reached out and pointed heavily to a spot on the map. Though he said nothing, the implication was clear.

“This… Wuchao?”

Following his finger, Cao Cao and the others saw that it was indeed Wuchao, a mere forty li from Yuan Shao’s main encampment.

For a moment, not a single strategist under Cao Cao spoke.

If Xu You spoke the truth, this was a tremendous opportunity. But if his words were false, and the plan failed, Cao Cao would be ruined.

“It’s true. Yuan Shao’s supply trains rest here before distribution. Because the site isn’t far from Yuan Shao’s main camp, the transport teams often lack reinforcements.”

Xu You paused, watching Cao Cao, his meaning unmistakable—he was urging Cao Cao to focus his attention on Wuchao.

“Wuchao is forty li from Yuan Shao’s main force. Though it holds countless supplies, there isn’t enough time to seize them outright. Our army can only send light cavalry in secret; if we use infantry, after battling the guards they’ll surely be surrounded and annihilated. So, if we follow your advice, burning the grain is our only option.”

The speaker was, of course, Guo Jia. At that moment, the other strategists under Cao Cao were still anxious and at a loss.

Xu You looked at Guo Jia, surprise evident in his expression.

This plan had been carefully prepared before he arrived, as his pledge to Cao Cao.

Xu You was clear-minded: if he could help Cao Cao win with a single stratagem—even if he relied on knowledge brought from Yuan Shao—he would be credited as the greatest contributor, and his place in Cao Cao’s army cemented.

He had not expected Guo Jia to immediately deduce the essence of his plan. But that wasn’t the point; the key was the information about Wuchao.

“That’s right. Before coming, I drafted a strategy for Mengde: burn Yuan Shao’s supplies and baggage. I have calculated the distance from Yuan Shao’s camp to Wuchao, and though Wuchao is not unguarded, it’s nearly impossible to accomplish this without losses.”

In other words, this was a plan fraught with risk and opportunity. If they succeeded in burning Yuan Shao’s supplies, Yuan Shao would be thrown into chaos and the chance for victory would be great. But if they failed, not only would those sent to burn the grain not return, the enemy would be alerted and launch a swift attack on Cao Cao.

This decision was not Xu You’s to make, nor Guo Jia’s; only Cao Cao could decide. The path lay before him, and it was up to him to choose.

“This plan is risky, but if we do not take it, our army has no hope. Rather than sit and wait for destruction, we must gamble. Summon Cao Hong, Yue Jin, and Zhang Liao!”

Clearly, Cao Cao had decided to adopt Xu You’s plan. And it was obvious to all: though Guan Yu had performed admirably in slaying Yan Liang and during Wen Chou’s death amid chaos, he was not summoned to discuss this strategy. The reason was understood by those who knew.

Once the generals entered the room, Cao Cao wasted no time and issued his orders directly.

“Cao Hong, you and Xun You will command the main force in the camp, closely monitoring the situation at Wuchao. If anything changes, await my signal! The rest of you will join me with five thousand light cavalry. We set out tomorrow night for a surprise attack on Wuchao. Bring plenty of fire-starting materials; as soon as Yuan Shao’s supplies are burned, we withdraw at once!”

Cao Cao issued simple commands. Of course, many details still needed to be discussed, but by setting the objective and tone of the operation so early, he made it clear to his generals and advisers that there was no retreat—this battle must be fought as planned.

Next, Cao Cao kept Xu You, Guo Jia, Cheng Yu, and Xun You—those most familiar with Yuan Shao’s army—inside, while the others went to prepare for the campaign.

Xu You, newly arrived and already so heavily relied upon, was a necessity for Cao Cao. The intelligence about Wuchao was brought by Xu You; since they believed him, they could not treat him with suspicion.

If Xu You meant to harm Cao Cao, then the very moment Cao Cao trusted that there was grain at Wuchao, he would have lost.

Since Cao Cao had chosen to gamble, he did not consider retreat. Not summoning Guan Yu immediately was because he understood that Guan Yu’s heart remained with Liu Bei, who was still in Yuan Shao’s camp—a latent threat Cao Cao would not tolerate.

“Ziyuan, with no outsiders present, I will personally lead five thousand troops, disguising ourselves in Yuan Shao’s uniforms and using their passwords to approach Wuchao. We will then launch a surprise attack on the guards and burn the supplies. In your opinion, what are our chances of success?”

The details left unspoken in his earlier orders were now discussed openly before Xu You and the others.

“At most sixty percent. When I put forward this plan, Mengde surely realized it was a risky one. The provisions are guarded by Yuan Shao’s general Chunyu Qiong, with no fewer than ten thousand troops—all infantry. To win in a single blow is not easy. Earlier, Ju Shou advised sending reinforcements to patrol the outskirts against a surprise attack by Cao’s army, but Yuan Shao’s arrogance made him ignore the warning. This has given us a rare opportunity.”